Stage 4 of 6
The NY Open ORB
The hypothesis
The first 15 minutes of the New York session set a range whose breakout carries real, tradeable edge on NQ.
04 / 06Walls faced & broken🧱 2 walls hit
PickNotesBacktestWallsLivePayout
12 yearsData tested
59%Win rate
1.31Profit factor
Breaking wallsStatus
Stage 01
Pick the strategy
Why this one. What the claim is. What would prove it wrong.
- E01Why the opening range — and what would kill itThe claim: institutional order flow at 09:30 ET creates a range whose break carries momentum. The kill condition: if edge vanishes after costs, it's dead.
Stage 02
Learn & take notes
Study it properly — the mechanics, the logic, the edge cases.
- E02ORB mechanics — range definition, breakout rules, stop logicDefining the 15-minute range precisely, both breakout directions, and what counts as a failed break. No vibes — written rules only.
Stage 03
Backtest it
12 years of CME 1-minute data. The numbers don't negotiate.
- E0312 years of NQ, 1-minute bars, every session59% win rate, PF 1.31 gross — a real edge, but concentrated in 2023–2025 and regime-dependent.
Stage 04
Walls faced & broken
happening nowEverything that failed, broke, or lied — and how it got fixed.
- E04🧱 Wall #1: drawdowns blow past prop firm limitsThe raw strategy's worst stretches exceed any funded account's max drawdown. Beautiful equity curve, unfundable risk. Sizing has to change or this dies here.
- E05🧱 Wall #2: every chop filter made it worseTested fixed brackets and chop filters to tame the losses — every variant degraded the edge. The drawdown is the price of the edge, not a bug in it.
Stage 05
Trade it live
🔒 not unlocked yetReal fills, real slippage, real money. Sim proves nothing.
This chapter unlocks when the road reaches it.
Stage 06
Take the payout
🔒 not unlocked yetThe strategy pays for itself — or it gets retired. In writing.
This chapter unlocks when the road reaches it.