No edge — retired ✕
iFVG Reversal
The hypothesis
Inverted fair value gaps mark genuine reversals that can be traded mechanically into the next FVG.
06 / 06Take the payout🧱 1 wall hit
PickNotesBacktestWallsLivePayout
12 yearsData tested
NegativeNet expectancy
No edgeVerdict
The verdict — retiredReasonable win rate, deeply negative expectancy — the average loser dwarfs the average winner, and $15 round-trip friction eats what's left. Mechanically dead. The discretionary version may survive on filtering the mechanical rules can't capture.
Stage 01
Pick the strategy
Why this one. What the claim is. What would prove it wrong.
- E01The ICT favorite — does it survive being written down?iFVG-to-FVG is everywhere on trading Twitter. Time to make the rules explicit and let the data vote.
Stage 02
Learn & take notes
Study it properly — the mechanics, the logic, the edge cases.
- E02Defining the inversion mechanicallyWhat exactly turns a fair value gap into an inverted one — candle closes, displacement, and target selection, all written as code-ready rules.
Stage 03
Backtest it
12 years of CME 1-minute data. The numbers don't negotiate.
- E03The numbers come back uglyDecent win rate, negative average R. The geometry guarantees small wins and large losses at these targets.
Stage 04
Walls faced & broken
Everything that failed, broke, or lied — and how it got fixed.
- E04🧱 Wall: reversing it doesn't save it eitherFlipping the failing signal flips gross expectancy — but friction is direction-agnostic, so net stays negative. There is no free lunch hiding in the mirror.
Stage 05
Trade it live
Real fills, real slippage, real money. Sim proves nothing.
Episodes coming — this stage is being written.
Stage 06
Take the payout
happening nowThe strategy pays for itself — or it gets retired. In writing.
- E05Verdict: retired, in writingThe mechanical version is dead and documented. The lesson — targets must be large relative to costs — carries forward to every future series.